Flaw of Averages

The following is based from a sporting fan's point of view, but in some ways you can apply the theory to situations in real life.

It doesn't matter what the probability of an event may be, or how past performance may predict a certain outcome, overall the chances that something will happen is 50/50. It will either happen, or it won't happen.

A baseball player's batting average shows how he has performed over all his at bats during a period of time. Using this number to predict a current at bat is flawed. If a batter is hitting .300 (or 30%) you cannot say that he will hit .300 in the current at bat. He will either get a hit, or he won't get a hit. It's 50/50.

From a hockey perspective if you look at shots on goal and say that a team scores once every 20 shots, you cannot say that any particular shot will result in a score of 5%. No, it will either be a goal, or it won't be a goal.

Certainly in the above 2 circumstances the actual probability of a base hit or scoring is quite low. Like in life, many dreams and goals have a tiny chance of occurring, but if you have the opportunity to step up to the plate, you might as well swing for the fences. At that point things look pretty good and suddenly the odds are 50/50!

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